Sanctions alone won't stop Iran getting a nuclear bomb.
14/02/2010

 

These extracts from an article in Haaretz, the Israeli newspaper, focus on the feeble attempts by America to reign in Iran's nuclear ambitions. Clearly, the Islamic hardliners who run the country will laugh at "sanctions." The only "sanction" likely to stop them is a military attack, and that's not as easy as might be imagined, unless America aids Israel. Iran, a long way from Israel and at the edge of the range of its bombers, is a huge country which has widely scattered and reinforced its numerous nuclear research facilities.

The good news is that the Bible has no predictions of a nuclear attack on Israel, which is such a tiny country that a small number of bombs could destroy it. Therefore, my conclusion is that it won't happen. The fate of Iran is far worse, however. All countries that plot against Israel will be brought to their knees, which is seen time and again every time a nation acts against the Apple of God's Eye.I have a presentation on The Middle East in Bible Prophecy on my latest Prophetic Witness Movement DVD set. ALAN FRANKLIN.

Sanctions alone won't stop Iran's nuclear work

By Emily Landau of Haaretz.com
 

Without genuine U.S. determination, there is no chance of preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

 
 
  
 
The end of the year, the deadline that Obama set for evaluating diplomatic progress on Iran, came and went. It is hard to avoid the conclusion that nothing has been accomplished, and it has been clear that the essential next step will involve imposing sanctions. In January, however, with China in the rotating presidency of the United Nations Security Council, it was said that it was necessary to wait until February, when France would assume the post.

February has arrived, but the Chinese are still opposed to sanctions and the Iranians are enriching their uranium to a higher level. Obama's response is that he has had it and the time has come for sanctions and immediately - which means within a few weeks, perhaps by the end of March. In March, however, Gabon will assume the presidency of the Security Council, and it is not certain that Iran is at the top of its agenda. And there are still the problems with the Chinese.

And if we assume that ultimately there will be sanctions, so what? The involvement with sanctions, who's for and who's against, when, why and to what extent, deflects from the primary problem - the absence of an American strategy for tough negotiations with Iran. Even more serious, however, is that there are worrying signs that the Obama administration is beginning to resign itself not only to the fact that Iran will continue to enrich uranium, but also to recognition that the Islamic republic could ultimately build a nuclear bomb.

When you begin to reconcile with a specific reality, you stop trying to change it. And then we hear more about the need to deter and contain Iran than about stopping it, about a nuclear umbrella for America's allies in the Persian Gulf instead of a firm negotiating strategy against Iran. And sanctions alone won't stop Iran.

The role of sanctions and other pressure, such as credible military threats, is to convince Iran that time is not on its side and it would be better to seriously negotiate with the West. Only then will the diplomatic work of American-Iranian negotiations begin, with a goal of an arrangement that would eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat.

There is no sign that the Obama administration intends to mobilize the necessary political muscle to lead such a process. An additional decision on ineffective sanctions will apparently satisfy the U.S. So, we tried.

The weakness that Obama is showing toward Iran has implications for America's global leadership role. Israel must speak to the Americans about this, and instead of focusing on sanctions, should try to determine if and how the U.S. intends to lead a comprehensive process leading to a solution. Without genuine American determination, there is no prospect of preventing the Iranians from developing nuclear weapons.

The writer is a senior research associate at the Institute for National Security Studies, where she is also director of the Arms Control and Regional Security Project.
 
 

 
 
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