The scientist whose past predictions have proved
wide of the mark is said to have prompted the current shutdown of the UK . He once said up to 150,000 people could die from BSE- Mad Cow Disease. The number of deaths to date has been fewer than 200.
A Daily Telegraph article said that
Professor Neil Ferguson, of the MRCCentre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College in London, produced a paper predicting that Britain was on course to lose 250,000 people during the coronavirus epidemic unless stringent measures were taken.
His research is said to have convinced Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his advisors to introduce the lockdown.
He has now adjusted this figure to up to 20,000 although it could be a lot less. He said that many of those deaths were likely to be of old and seriously ill people who would have died from other conditions before the end of the year.
“It might be as much as half or two thirds of the deaths we see, because these are people at the end of their lives or have underlying conditions so these are considerations.”
The Telegraph article said: “However, it has now emerged that Ferguson has been criticised in the past for making predictions based on allegedly faulty assumptions which nevertheless shaped government strategies and impacted the UK economy.” The full stories are in The Telegraph.